Von Greyerz - Gold Will Trade $3,000 - $5,000 in 2012

With the gold price tumbling, along with silver, today King World News interviewed the man who told clients in 2002, when gold was $300, to put up to 50% of their assets into physical gold, held outside of the banking system. Egon von Greyerz is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland. When asked about the plunge in gold, von Greyerz said, “Well, Eric, I’m not really surprised because last time I talked to you I did say gold could go down to $1,550 support and maybe even $1,420. In my view that would be quite normal in a very thin market and I said that would probably happen by the year end.”

“But this is all a thin paper market, we have not seen one single physical seller of gold or silver at these prices. So it’s just manipulation and panic in a paper market at the year end. Of course, it’s easy for anyone who wants to intervene to push the price down even further in a thin market. So I think that’s what’s happening and I wouldn’t worry the slightest bit.

Gold is up for the year in all currencies and 2012 will be another fantastic year. I could see the first three to five months (of 2012) being dramatic. You know the financing requirements worldwide are just mind-boggling. We’re talking about trillions here if you combine sovereign, corporate and bank requirements. The requirements are so high they just have to start printing money and they will.

The combination of strong buyers (physical) at these lower levels and the fact that we will see massive money printing, starting next year, will lift gold and silver very quickly in my view....

When asked how close we are to that massive money printing, von Greyerz stated, “I think we are extremely close because the banking system will not survive without it and governments know that. They have to do it (print).

There are already covert actions happening. The ECB is already printing money covertly and so is the Fed. But it will soon become official in my view and the amounts will be much greater than (anything) we’ve seen so far.”

When asked where he sees gold heading in 2012, von Greyerz responded, “I wouldn’t be surprised to see several thousand dollars (for gold), let’s say between $3,000 and $5,000 next year. I see that as the next move and fundamentally everything supports that.”

When asked about societal breakdown as gold eventually rockets higher, von Greyers remarked, “Well, Eric, that concerns me the most. Let me just take you through a couple of small examples because I’ve just spent Christmas in the UK.

Burglaries in the UK have doubled in 2011, doubled from the previous year. Theft of cattle and sheep has increased 2.7 times between 2010 and 2011. These are just are just small indications before anything has started to happen. People are poor, people are hungry.

This is just an early indication of what will happen in the next few years. People will have no money, people will be hungry, and therefore they will fight to get money, they will fight to get food. Sadly, we will have, in most countries, in European as well as the US, we will have serious social unrest. How far that will go is impossible to tell, but I am concerned.”

This is a powerful interview with one of the few men who saw the collapse ahead of time.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/29_Von_Greyerz_-_Gold_Will_Trade_$3,000_-_$5,000_in_2012.html

Akaun simpanan emas Haram…Sejauh mana anda peduli

Akaun simpanan emas Haram…Sejauh mana anda peduli

Oh! Mana Harga Emas Semasa Di Website Public Gold ?

Pagi hari ini di website Public Gold link untuk harga semasa

dah tiada.Proses upgrading lagi ka? Kenapa lama sangat masa diambil?

Gangguan ini bermula sejak malam tadi lagi termasuk di blog Oh! Emas.

Boleh juga semak harga semasa Public Gold di

http://www.publicgold.com.my/v1/components/com_publicgold/wb/liveprice.php

Pagi hari ini (22/12/2011)dah ok,

Why Did Gold Drop This Week?

Gold Falls to Seven-Week Low as Dollar Rally Erodes Metal Demand

Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures fell to the lowest in almost seven weeks as the dollar’s rally curbed demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment.

The greenback jumped as much as 1.3 percent against a basket of six currencies. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI index of 24 energy, metal and agriculture prices dropped as much as 1.6 percent after Moody’s Investors Service said it will review ratings for all European Union countries, citing a failure to produce “decisive” measures to end the region’s debt crisis.

“The stronger dollar is hurting gold,” Miguel Perez- Santalla, a sales vice president at Heraeus Precious Metals Management in New York, said in a telephone interview. “People are dumping all commodities, including gold, because of what is happening in Europe.”

Gold futures for February delivery declined 2.8 percent to settle at $1,668.20 an ounce at 2:03 p.m. on the Comex in New York, the biggest drop for a most-active contract since Nov. 17. Earlier, the price touched $1,660.30, the lowest since Oct. 25.

Last week’s European Union summit offered few new measures and doesn’t diminish the risk of credit-ranking revisions, Moody’s said today.

The “unresolved issue in Europe will keep the dollar strong against the euro, which could weigh on gold prices,” Sun Yonggang, an analyst at Everbright Futures Co in Shanghai, said in a report.

Gold has climbed 17 percent this year, heading for the 11th straight annual gain, as investors sought to diversify away from equities and some currencies.
Silver futures for March delivery slumped 3.9 percent to $31.002 an ounce, the biggest drop since Nov. 21.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, palladium futures for March delivery fell 3.4 percent to $663 an ounce. Platinum futures for January delivery declined 1.9 percent to $1,486.90 an ounce.

--With assistance from Glenys Sim in Singapore. Editors: Patrick McKiernan, Millie Munshi

To contact the reporters on this story: Debarati Roy in Mumbai at droy5@bloomberg.net; Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Patrick McKiernan at pmckiernan@bloomberg.net

By Debarati Roy and Nicholas Larkin
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-12/gold-falls-to-seven-week-low-as-dollar-rally-erodes-metal-demand.html

Kekalutan Dolar AS, Pengukuhan Dan Kelemahan Serta Kesannya Kepada Harga Emas Semasa

Apabila Dolar AS menjadi lebih kukuh, ia mengambil kurang dolar untuk membeli apa-apa komoditi yang berharga dalam $ USD.
Apabila Dolar AS menjadi lemah, ia mengambil lebih banyak dolar untuk membeli komoditi yang sama.


Harga denominasi Dolar AS bagi kesemua komoditi, seperti emas, akan berubah untuk mencerminkan hakikat bahawa ia akan mengambil dolar yang kurang atau lebih untuk membeli komoditi itu. Jadi ia agak berkemungkinan, sebenarnya hampir selalu kes bahawa sebahagian daripada perubahan dalam harga emas adalah benar-benar hanya mencerminkan perubahan dalam nilai Dolar Amerika Syarikat (AS). Kadang-kadang bahagian tersebut adalah tidak ketara. Tetapi pada kebiasaan disebaliknya adalah benar di mana seluruh perubahan dalam harga emas adalah hanya satu pengiraan semula matematik nilai Dolar AS yang sentiasa berubah-ubah.


Apabila dolar menjadi semakin kukuh, harga emas nampaknya jatuh dan begitu juga sebaliknya. Bahawa akaun bagi sebahagian daripada turun naik yang kita lihat dalam nilai emas.
Sebahagian yang lain adalah peningkatan sebenar dalam bekalan atau permintaan untuk emas. Jika harga yang lebih tinggi apabila diukur bukan sahaja dalam Dolar AS, tetapi juga dalam Euro, Poundsterling, Yen Jepun dan tiap-tiap mata wang utama yang lain, maka kita tahu permintaan emas adalah lebih tinggi dan ia sebenarnya telah meningkat nilai.


Oleh itu, jika emas adalah lebih tinggi dalam Dolar AS dan pada masa yang sama lebih murah dalam mata wang lain, maka kita boleh membuat kesimpulan bahawa dalam Dolar AS menjadi lemah dan emas yang sebenarnya telah hilang nilai dalam semua mata wang lain. Tetapi harga, kerana ia sedang disebutharganya dalam $ USD akan lebih tinggi dan memberi ilusi emas menjadi lebih mahal. Dalam kes penurunan nilai emas, disebabkan bekalan yang meningkat di pasaran, diselimuti (camouflaged) oleh Dolar AS yang lemah.

Be Real , Be Physical For Whatever You Buy

From Public Gold Malaysia

Announcement

Dear Valued Dealer/Customer,
Please be informed that Public Gold is currently experiencing a dispute with our web engine administrator, hence we are unable to access and receive any online booking detail starts from 7/10/2011, 6.30pm. Please resubmit your order made on this period.

From now onwards, kindly DO NOT make any (BUY or SELL) price booking thru www.publicgold.com.my; www.publicdinar.com; and www.publicjewellery.com.my.
Prices listed in these 3 websites will be all invalid.

For price reference, please login to:
1. www.publicdinar.com.my
2. http://www.publicdinar.com.my/liveprice.html

For price booking, please make thru:
1.Call-in to PG branches during office hour.
2.SMS to PG mobile phones.

Branch Office No. Mobile No.

SP, Kedah 04-4232999 012-4836916

BJ, Penang 04-6449999 012-5282916

Bishop, Penang 04-2619999 012-4298916

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Kuching 082-259916 017-6788916

Seremban 06-6782916 012-3495916

AlorSetar 04-7344916 012-4890916


3.Email to order@publicgold2u.com.my .

Ordering format:
Name:
PG code:
IC No.:
H/P No.:
Email address:
Payment Method: EPP/ Full Payment
Collection at/ Preferred Branch:

Oh..ini macam punya reporter pun ada kaa.....!

Sell Your Gold, It's Not Backed By Anything!

Do we have it all wrong? Maybe this woman is right!

Maybe gold doesn't have value because it isn't "backed" by anything! And, maybe we should buy dollars because they are backed by something... They are backed by the large criminal organization known as the US Government!

And she makes a good point. It is also backed by The Federal Reserve. And they'll definitely be here a few years from now (except if Ron Paul has anything to say about it - and he's getting pretty popular nowadays).

Gold? Who knows. It could all just disappear!




Hoo boy, just another reason to sell your television.

http://www.wealthwire.com/news/headlines/1973

Ohh..Bear Traps, Entry Point....Masa Untuk Borong Emas

"Nothing will unnerve the paper gold shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the real metal and force them to come up with more hard gold bullion to make good on deliveries. "Stand and Deliver or Go Home" should be the rallying cry of the gold longs to the paper gold shorts." --Trader Dan Norcini

My Dear Extended Family:

A quote from CIGA Eric today completely encapsulates what we are experiencing in the gold market:

"This is a repeat of 2009 - actually even more extreme readings than 2009. We are severely oversold today. Anyone not buying here does not believe in the fundamental story. In my opinion, this will be a huge entry point by 2012."

In conversations with Kenny we examined the worst case scenario in terms of the correctness of Eric's comment with which we both totally agree.

Our conclusion is:

Market situations like this will be found to have held and created bear traps in several instances of similar pattern action over the past 30 years WITHOUT having continued further down to first major support. The current corrective pattern over the past 23 trading days strongly implies that the move below $1690 would continue on down to the core at $1665 at minimum as first bottom, and in the extreme to $1615, but not below $1584. This will happen prior to exhaustion and a return to the full bull trend.

So far the remaining successive levels of $2450/$2510; $2850/$2900, and $3280/$3330 are not affected.

Gold shares are being impacted by a field of problems as a result of the large short positions held in almost all. They are being taken advantage of today by pressuring the entities in hopes of causing long term holders to collapse in their commitments.

Respectfully,
Jim

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Ohh Emas! Harga bakal mencecah USD2,000/oz di penghujung tahun 2011

$2,000 an ounce for gold is now within sight

Garry White, 18:26, Sunday 18 September 2011

Gold slipped below $1,800 an ounce last week and equities rallied. As investors now look for more risk in their portfolios, has the gold price finally hit its peak?

The increasing appetite for risk came as the European Central Bank said it will co-ordinate with the Federal Reserve to lend dollars to eurozone banks. However, the European debt crisis has still not moved into its endgame.

Brokers certainly believe the pullback is a blip.
"We do not expect the price of gold to drop much under the $1,800 a troy ounce mark, though, as the market develops a strong physical buying interest in gold at around this level," Commerzbank (Other OTC: CRZBF.PK - news) said.

"Furthermore, uncertainty persists: according to reports in the media, Italy now risks a downgrade of its credit rating."

HSBC (LSE: HSBA.L - news) agrees. "We believe gold's 10-year bull market remains firmly intact, despite high volatility," analyst James Steel said as he raised its forecasts for the gold price. "The eurozone debt crisis, currency wars, and deep uncertainty among investors are among the factors driving prices higher," it added.

The bank raised its 2012 average price forecast to $2,025 from $1,625 and its 2013 view to $1,850 from $1,550. The new long term price forecast was increased by $125 to $1,500 an ounce.

"As central bankers and other policymakers run out of options, investor disquiet is increasing and paper markets look increasingly uncertain," Mr Steel added. "The possibility that government remedies for debt problems will indirectly lead to higher gold prices through inflation is also encouraging investment in gold."

Last week also saw the publication of the quarterly Gold Survey from precious metals consultancy GFMS, in which it predicted prices would hit $2,000 before the year end.

"Given strong demand for bullion from the public and private sectors … the relatively constrained increase in scrap supply and the 'stickiness' of jewellery demand in the fact of higher gold prices, we can easily envisage gold breaking through the $2,000 market before year-end," GFMS said.

The survey revealed that central banks had turned net buyers of gold with a vengeance in the first half of the year. Official sector purchases rose to a net 216 tonnes almost triple the figure seen last year. This is flattered by the fact that the International Monetary Fund completed its sales programme in December 2010.

GFMS expects that central banks will purchase a net 336 tonnes in the full year, which will be the highest annual figure since the collapse of Bretton Woods 40 years ago.

RBS (LSE: RBS.L - news) also released its Commodity Companion last week and it advised maintaining exposure, despite saying that the price could hit its peak relatively soon.

"The concerns that have propelled gold to its current levels remain relevant and are unlikely to disappear in the near term," the analysts, which are headed by Nick Moore, said. "Given acute financial market uncertainty, it is hard to be too bearish towards gold in this market and we continue to advocate maintaining exposure."

The team also predicted that the price would hit $2,000 as the gold gifting season is about to begin. "We now think the $2,000 an ounce milestone will likely be reached within the next few months."

However, there was a note of caution. "We maintain the view that gold is richly priced and current and higher levels are unsustainable on a longer term horizon. The $2,000 an ounce marker could well prove to be the high water mark for the gold price," Mr Moore said.

"Gold is in a fundamental supply surplus and investors are being asked to absorb an ever rising amount of metal (particularly when measured in dollar terms) to balance the market."

Indeed, GFMS revealed that there had already been demand destruction caused by high prices.

Total (Euronext: FP.NX - news) global investment in gold dropped 24pc in volume terms to 624 tonnes in the first half, although in value terms investor demand was only slightly lower year-on-year, slipping 5pc to $29bn.

Any strengthening of the dollar would also hit the price but it looks like $2,000 an ounce is now within sight.

= Silver shines as gold loses lustre among investors =

Silver has risen the most of all commodities over the last 10 years, new research from Lloyds TSB (LSE: LLOY.L - news) shows.

Silver has risen 885pc over the last decade, Lloyds TSB Private Banking's Commodities Monitor indicates, out-performing gold's 569pc leap. Copper was the third best gainer, rising 527pc, with tin prices up 524pc.

"In addition to its position as a safe haven investment, high demand for industrial uses has also contributed to the strong rise in the price of silver," it said.

= De Beers to move its sales operation to Botswana in a 10-year deal =

De Beers, the world's largest producer of diamonds, has agreed to move its sorting and sales operation to Botswana from London by the end of 2013. Sales had been undertaken in London since 1888.

The move is part of a 10-year deal signed with the Government of Botswana in Gaborone. The deal secures the company's access to diamonds from the country, which produces more diamonds than any other.

"With diamond demand and prices continuing to grow, DeBeers has secured long-term, uninterrupted access to the largest supply of diamonds in the world," the company said.

As part of the agreement, Botswana will sell 10pc of local production to the market for the first time, as a way to provide the nation with its own "price verification system."

Botswana produces about 21pc of global diamond mine output and 67pc of De Beers' output. The value of diamonds plunged during the recession, slashing Botswana's major source of revenue.

Prices have bounced back since then, but Firestone Diamonds (Frankfurt: 764519 - news) said last week that turmoil in the financial markets had caused prices to slump over the last two months.

Miner Anglo American owns 45pc of De Beers, the Oppenheimer family owns 40pc and the Government of Botswana has 15pc.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/-2-000-ounce-gold-sight-tele-3834117483.html;_ylt=A03uoWbSwXZOOg4AG1wusLFG;_ylu=X3oDMTFlZWY5dTFvBHBvcwMxMwRzZWMDbmV3c0h1YkFydGljbGVMaXN0BHNsawMyMDAwYW5vdW5jZWY-?x=0

The Gold Rush Is On

Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers in Montreal, said the gold market is being driven mainly by psychological factors.

"It's like the waiting room at a psychiatrist's office," he said. "We've seen fear, despair, greed, denial -- mostly denial," he said.

Nadler said prices could fall further if the metal drops below $1,650 an ounce. But he wouldn't rule out a rebound of about $65 an ounce in the near term.

He said some investors are still expecting the Fed to signal additional stimulus measures at a meeting in Wyoming this weekend. Ben Bernanke, the central bank chairman, is scheduled to deliver the keynote speech Friday.

In any event, he said the recent volatility in the gold market is worrying for an asset that is supposed to be a hedge against volatility.

The drop on Wednesday was the biggest one-day price decline since 1980, he said.

"The psychological damage to the small investor is already shaping up in full force," he said. "They might start leaning toward the side that says we had a bubble, and bubbles don't deflate slowly once they're pricked."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-steadies-after-free-cnnm-1134773125.html

After Correction, Gold and Silver Set for Big Rally

After Correction, Gold and Silver Set for Big Rally – Puru Saxena

Interview Highlights:

Kitco News held an exclusive interview with Puru Saxena of Hong-Kong based Puru Saxena Wealth Management; here are some of the highlights. Click to watch the full interview below:

QE3 Would Ignite Silver

Silver has been in a massive uptrend for last year says Saxena and it has completed its consolidation phase, says Saxena. “The technicals for silver look super here and if and when Bernanke does QE3 – silver is going to ignite,” he says. Saxena says at the moment roughly 15% of assets he manages are allocated in physical silver.

“We warned about a big silver correction in April when everybody thought silver was going to 400-500,” says Saxena. He started buying silver again at the $33-$34 mark and recently added some more to his portfolio last week, he says.

More Corrections for Gold?

Over the last 10 years, gold’s advance has been “orderly,” says Saxena. “We didn’t really have any massive spikes; however, about two to three months ago, I felt gold was going to do its thing this year,” Saxena says.

Saxena says he could see gold going parabolic over the next six to nine months. “I wouldn’t try to be too clever by timing gold here or trading gold I think the correct thing to do in the latter stage of a bull market is to take a sizeable position and simply ride it out for the duration of the bull market,” he adds.

Friday’s Jackson Hole Meeting

Saxena says he is not so sure whether Friday’s Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., will see a third round of quantitative easing unleashed, but he says an asset buying program is in the cards. “When I look at bank stocks in America, they are down significantly from the highs and that leaves me to believe that Mr. Bernanke will do something to help his brothers in the banking industry,” he says.

It was at last year’s Jackson Hole meeting that Bernanke hinted that another bond-buying round would occur, but the program wasn’t officially announced until November.

The banks are in need of capital and the easiest way to get it is through the Fed Reserve, explains Saxena. “They may not call it QE3 but maybe Operation Twist or Black Storm,” Saxena says, but at some point, he says he believes there will be assistance from the Federal Reserve.

Indian Gold Imports

Gold imports by India, the world’s biggest consumer, may reach a record 1,000 tons this year as investors seek a haven against inflation and volatility in stock markets. Saxena says the bull market in gold is not just about Indian jewelry demand or Indian investment demand; it is about global investment demand.

People all over the world are shunning paper currencies, Saxena says. “Even central banks are beginning to see the light of day -- Korea, Mexico, Thailand have been piling into gold,” he says. Saxena adds that the biggest player to emerge might be China’s central bank. “It only owns about 2% of reserves in gold…at some point the Chinese are going to buy gold in large quantities and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chinese have secretly been buying into gold,” he says.

By Daniela Cambone of Kitco News dcambone@kitco.com

Kemudahan Jual Balik - Sell Back - Public Gold Malaysia

Perkembangan terkini dari Public Gold Malaysia.

Sekarang kemudahan online untuk lock harga

jual balik emas dan perak telah disediakan secara

ONLINE. Saya sangat menyambut baik kemudahan ini.

Tahniah PUBLIC GOLD.

(Terima Kasih kepada En. James, dari PG HQ Penang kerana
telah merealisasikan cadangan ini yang telah dikemukakan
kepada beliau beberapa bulan yang lepas)

Silver Prices Will Hit $50 By Year End

Gold Prices Sink Further After Earthquake

NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Gold prices retreated from record highs Tuesday as investors took profits once the yellow metal blew past $1,900 an ounce.
 
Strong manufacturing data out of China and Germany as well as a surprise earthquake in Virginia accelerated declines.
Gold for December delivery closed down $30.60 at $1,861.30 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, although prices were down an additional $50 in after-hours trading. The gold price traded as high as $1,917.90 and as low as $1,851.90 during the session, while the spot gold price tanked more than $60, according to Kitco's gold index.

Silver prices settled down $1.03 at $42.29 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.34% at $73.89 while the euro was flat vs. the dollar.

HSBC sparked the selloff in gold Tuesday after it said its gauge of manufacturing activity in China rose to 49.8 from 49.3 in July. Although that number is under the 50 point growth level, some experts say that it signals a soft landing in China -- that recent rate hikes have not stymied growth altogether.

Manufacturing activity in the Eurozone and in particular Germany were also better than expected at 49.7 and 52, respectively. Investors had been dreading a global slowdown after the Germany's economy showed almost no growth in the second quarter.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange also raised margin requirements on gold futures contracts, the second time this year, by 1%, making investors pay more up front to buy gold. Traders worried about the CME following suit could be rotating out of some of their gold contracts.


Gold prices also blew past $1,900 in overnight trading, triggering a wave of profit taking. "Should we have changes in asset allocations with a show of stability in stock markets we could see a pullback below $1,825," says George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Capital Markets, especially if sell stops are triggered below $1,850, meaning that traders are forced to sell.

Many experts think, however, that any dips will be met with strong buying and help curb a deeper correction. "The inability of asset managers to find other well performing areas is keeping gold in portfolios," says Gero.
"Demand for gold appears to be broad based," says James Moore, research analyst at FastMarket, "with the US Mint reporting MTD Eagle coin sales in excess of 90,000 in contrast to SPDR Gold Trust(GLD_), which declined by 6.3 tons yesterday and as a result we expect any correction to be supported by strong dip-buying interest."


Phil Streible, senior market strategist at MFGlobal, doesn't think that gold prices will fall back to the $1,680 level, which is the technical level many analysts point to as a key support, but that they will fall. "You have to look at some of these previous peaks," says Streible, like $1,725 and $1,800 an ounce levels, "use those as support levels and then start nibbling at the market there."

A slew of positive news or, on the flip side, any need for investors to liquidate assets for cash, could be potential headwinds for higher gold prices. If investors feel better about the economy, they might not seek gold as protection. But if investors are faced with higher margin requirements or another deep selloff in the stock market, gold buyers could dump the metal to raise cash.


Darrell Cronk, senior vice president, regional chief investment officer at Wells Fargo(WFC_), was instrumental in writing the investment bank's recent note that said "we can confidently state that interest in gold investing has reached the level of a speculative bubble. Prudent investors should be very wary of having substantial investment exposure to this precious metal in their portfolios." Cronk spoke recently to TheStreet to defend that position in the face of a high gold price.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11228023/1/gold-prices-tank-after-cresting-1900.html

Kitco - Commentaries - Richard Baker

Kitco - Commentaries - Richard Baker

The Value Adjusted Gold Price© (VAGP©) offers a simple technique to influence buy/sell decisions for gold traders and investors. The approach can be used for any currency denomination and is validated by comparing it with a recent chronology of buy/sell recommendations from a renowned commodity trader.

Gold is presently a very tall tree but it will not grow to the heavens - precious metals are known for periods of consolidation and sometimes violent correction. Even most ardent believers in the 30-year secular bull market for the yellow metal have a disciplined approach to creating positions. The following is one such technique.

Kitco - Commentaries - Ross Norman

Kitco - Commentaries - Ross Norman

At what point does gold go from being simply overbought and actually into a bubble phase ? It's a question well worth pondering as we seem to be on the cusp of both.

Technically gold is in overbought territory by any number of technical measures on the charts - be they bollinger bands, RSI (Relative Strength Indicator), MACD Indicator, Fibonacci extensions or Elliot Waves. Gold's failure to adhere to what chartists would tell us is reasonable behaviour - that is continue to rally when by rights a period of consolidation or profit-taking would be expected suggests that gold is either simply not in technical "mode" and that other external factors are driving us higher or that we are in a panic phase which inevitably leads to a blow-off at the top.

There is not a particular price point at which we could say that we are in a bubble - it is the manner - or speed - of getting there that defines it. This bull run has been 11 years in the making, it has been founded upon solid supply/demand fundamentals - it has been accelerated by innovation on the demand side and some extreme macroeconomic factors which to our minds justifies the current price; as such, the gold price is inherently strong and has resilience.

In most of the last 11 years we have seen gains in gold prices of between 18% and 22% - this year we have seen 32% and we are yet to enjoy the fourth quarter which is traditionally the strongest quarter for seasonal factors.

It is tough determining the level or price which represents 'fair value' and when one has moved well beyond it. That said, the parabolic nature of the gold price chart in the last few weeks suggests to us that we are ahead of ourselves and that a pull back or correction would be a healthy one. The Fibonacci Extensions suggest that $1915, $2111 and $2232 are top price projections - take your pick. 

In short, long gold has been a wondrously profitable position to hold but a degree of caution is now in order. We are preparing levels at which to sell our gold positions - until it returns to a more sensible level... and then get back in. Let's not be too greedy.

Jackson Hole this Friday MIGHT just provide that turning point.

Ross Norman
 

Sharps Pixley, London-Based Bullion Brokers 

Selling Your Gold

Selling your gold

With the price of gold above $1,700 an ounce, some cash-strapped Americans are deciding to sell some of their gold jewelry. The Better Business Bureau says consumers should take precautions to make sure they get a fair price. It recommends that no matter where they're selling, consumers take their jewelry to several appraisers before selling to a gold buyer. The BBB also said consumers should ask buyers how much they’ll be paid per ounce and get several quotes. The group cautioned consumers not to let jewelry of different karats be weighed together: Some buyers weigh all gold together and pay only the price for the lowest-quality gold.

Gold: $1700 and Climbing!

                                                                  Run For Your Wealth!

Buy gold before the July-October rally

Don & Jon Vialoux, Financial Post • Jun. 28, 2011

Gold and gold stocks have a period of seasonal strength between July and December. What are the prospects for a seasonal trade in the sector this year?

Thackray's 2011 Investor's Guide notes that the optimal period to own gold bullion is from July 12 to Oct. 9 and the optimal time to own gold equities is from July 27 to Sept. 25. The average return per period for the gold equity sector during the past 25 years was 6.8%.

Gold and gold equities tend to take a break in October, their weakest month in the year. Thereafter, they have a second period of seasonal strength from the end of October to the end of December.

The traditional explanation why gold and gold stocks move higher from July to September is greater seasonal demand for gold by fabricators who manufacture jewellery for the Indian wedding season in November during Diwali and for the Christmas season.

However, times are changing. Chinese fabricators buy additional gold in the fourth quarter each year to make into jewellery for the Chinese New Year at the end of January. Last year, Chinese buying for jewellery purposes exceeded Indian buying for the first time. Chinese buying late in the year could partially explain why the second period of seasonal strength from late October to December has become more prominent in recent years.

Gold has been advancing during the past decade for another important reason. Gold has become known as a haven to protect against deteriorating currency values. Developed nations recently have tried to re-inflate their economies by printing more money. Net result is a devaluation of assets priced in their currencies. Investors have chosen to own at least part of the valued asset in alternate investments, particularly gold. Gold has become the world's substitute currency.

What about this year? Demand for jewellery purposes continues to grow despite gold approaching its all time high. Demand is particularly strong in India and China, two of the world's fastest growing economies. One of the ways that people in India and China like to display their wealth is through the display of their jewellery.

Of greater importance, purchases of gold for investment purposes are accelerating in order to protect against currency risk, particularly against the U.S. dollar. Gold is being purchased by speculators as well as central banks such as India, China, Brazil and Russia.

Demand for gold to back investment products continues to grow. The prominent gold bullion SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD/NYSE), the largest ETF based on value in the world, continues to grow and more gold bullion ETFs have been proposed in developing nations such as China.

On the charts, gold has a positive technical profile. It currently is locked in a 10month trading range between US$1473.90 and its closing high at US$1563.20. The intermediate trend is up. Short-term momentum indicators are oversold and trending higher.

Gold is sensitive to changes in the U.S. dollar. Recently, gold struggled to move higher with strength in the U.S. dollar Index and weakness in the euro. However, the U.S. dollar is expected to start sliding again soon. An unending penchant by the U.S. government to spend more money than received, combined with an accommodative monetary policy inevitably will lead to a resumption of an intermediate downtrend. Short-term momentum indicators already are overbought and showing early signs of peaking.

In contrast, gold equities and equivalent ETFs have dropped about 20% since gold reached its record high at the end of April. However, gold equities and ETFs have shown technical signs of bottoming during the past week.
In addition, gold equities and ETFs have outperformed gold during the past week, a positive technical sign for both gold and gold equities. Improving technicals in gold equities imply that the period of seasonal strength is appearing earlier than usual this year.

Investors can participate in the current period of seasonal strength by buying a diversified basket of gold equities or by purchasing exchange - traded funds holding gold bullion or gold equities. A preference is given to higher quality equities and ETFs instead of junior exploratory stocks with a high risk profile.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/gold+before+July+October+rally/5014432/story.html

Amerika Syarikat sebenarnya sudah bankrap - Tun Mahathir

KUALA LUMPUR 23 Jun - Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad berkata, Amerika Syarikat (AS) kini sebenarnya sudah bankrap tetapi menafikannya kerana beranggapan ia masih menjadi kuasa besar ekonomi dunia.
Berikutan itu, beliau melabelkan AS sebagai sebuah negara yang gagal di dalam ekonominya.

''AS sebenarnya sebuah negara yang gagal kerana bankrap, mencatatkan defisit berganda dan wang yang mereka ada pun adalah wang cetak.
''Tapi AS masih mahu menyangkal kedudukan mereka (bankrap),'' katanya ketika menyampaikan ucaptama di CEO Forum anjuran Yayasan Kepimpinan Perdana di sini hari ini.

Secara sinikal Mahathir berkata, seandainya Malaysia mengalami kedudukan ekonomi yang sama seperti AS, sudah lama negara ini diisytiharkan bankrap.
Bagi menutup kelemahan mereka, AS terus sibuk memperjuangkan demokrasi liberal di Iraq, Afghanistan dan terbaharu di Libya.

Beliau berkata, negara-negara kaya selalu berada dalam radar persaingan sesama sendiri tetapi masih gagal untuk bersaing dengan negara-negara yang baru muncul.
''Negara-negara kaya ini selalu mendesak supaya negara-negara lain melakukan perubahan dan sasaran mereka adalah negara-negara kecil dan miskin.

''Tetapi, apabila melihat keadaan ekonomi negara-negara itu sekarang, nampaknya mereka juga tidak tahu untuk menguruskan kewangan mereka.
''Kegagalan mereka (kendalikan kewangan) menyebabkan negara-negara kecil turut merasai krisis ekonomi yang berpunca daripada mereka,'' tambahnya.
Sambil memberi contoh, Mahathir berkata, selain AS, Greece masih lagi dibelenggu dengan krisis hutangnya.

''Satu-satunya negara yang tidak menerima kesan daripada apa yang berlaku di negara-negara kaya ialah China.

''Sebaliknya, dengan kekayaan yang dimiliki China sekarang, negara itu mampu membeli bon-bon di AS,'' tambah beliau.

http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/info.asp?y=2011&dt=0624&pub=Utusan_Malaysia&sec=Ekonomi&pg=ek_01.htm

6 Myths of the "Gold Bubble"

Anyone calling gold a bubble is talking through their hat or worse...

YES, GROWTH IN global gold demand is rapid. No, another decade of quintupling prices isn't nailed on. But neither of those facts make gold a "bubble" today.

In fact, anyone calling gold a bubble right now is talking through their hat – at best. Take these jokers, for instance, all holding forth in the last month...

Myth #1. "Gold is a crowded trade"

The finance pages are packed with gold headlines, but actual investment levels remain low. In the early 1980s, private-bank clients were expected to hold 3% of their wealth in gold, many times the 0.5% allocation seen across the finance industry today. Even in the bullion market itself, three-quarters of the 500-plus analysts and traders attending last autumn's LBMA conference in Berlin said they held as little as nothing ("Between 0% and 10%") of their savings in precious metals. Saturation is a long way off.

Myth #2. "Gold has madly rushed to $1500 without a correction"

Compared with undeniable bubbles, gold's recent climb just isn't steep enough. Gold prices rose 70% for Dollar investors in the last 3 years, but US stocks rose 160% in that length of time in the 1920s, and Germany's Neuer Markt rose over 1600% starting in 1997. London's South Sea Bubble of 1720 rose 9-fold in 5 months! What makes gold remarkable today is the longevity, not speed, of its bull market – now delivering positive, inflation-beating returns to US and UK savers every year since 2001.

Myth #3. "Gold will fall hard when interest rates rise"

Only if interest rates outpace inflation, and what are the chances of that? People turn to gold when cash – its major (and otherwise better) competitor as a store of wealth – loses value. Sub-zero real US rates have already cost cash savers over 3% of their spending power in the last 18 months. Rates currently lag inflation by the widest margin since the summer of 1980. Back then, however, the cost of living was rising at double-digits, and could not be talked away.

Myth #4. "Inflation is set to fall back"

How, exactly? The cost living is hurting earners, savers and seniors alike, but mostly because their incomes aren't growing. On the official data, the Consumer Price Index has risen barely 11% from five years ago, its weakest long-term rise since 1967. Anything lower, and QE3 looks certain, thanks to the Fed's anti-deflation fixation. If US inflation is headed anywhere from here, it's not down.

Myth #5. "Gold's not an investment, because it doesn't pay interest"

A desperate claim which is at least true – true a decade ago at $260, and true evermore unless an investment bank sells you a structured derivative. Gold's lack of income means it has no promises to break, setting it apart from all other asset classes, most notably debt. It's hard to accuse gold buyers of "over-optimism " (Charles Kindleberger's definition of bubble), but this market would only move into "irrational exuberance" (Robert Shiller's phrase) if it kept rising after monetary policy switched from weak to strong.

Myth #6. "Gold will burst when the world economy settles down"

You've got to love that "when". But beyond its impact on policy rates, however, economic growth has little to do with gold prices. Gold fell vs. the Dollar during the US recessions of 1980 and 1990, only to triple during the go-go years of 2003-2007. Across the last four decades, in fact, gold shows a negative but statistically insignificant correlation with quarterly US GDP of minus 0.11 year-over-year. Quarterly GDP in China (the world's second-biggest buyers) shows a negligible 0.08 correlation since 2005. Rupee gold prices since 1996 show only a 0.32 correlation with Indian GDP.

People started saying gold was a bubble in early 2008 at $1000, then at $1200 and $1300 in 2009 and 2010, and now at $1500 and above in 2011. Yet still nothing has changed to the core case for gold. If anything, in fact, the fundamental reasons for private savings going to buy gold have grown stronger.

Ultra-loose money is locked in by record peace-time debts and deficits. Central-bank and private-Asian gold buying continue to grow as economic power moves East.

Everything else is just noise – the one excess to which gold investing is prone right now.

Adrian Ash

source: http://news.goldseek.com/BullionVault/1308523318.php

Jim Rogers Talks Silver, Why Bernanke is Clueless

In his latest interivew, Jim Rogers talks to the WSJ about the global economy. Highlights: China's growth prospects, why bailouts are bad for growth, and the seemingly inevitable dollar collapse. Also, Jim talks about why he is happy silver went down (around 14 minutes into the vid below).

Best quote (in response to claims that the auto bailout has been paid back fully), "If you and I kept our books like [the US govt] does, we'd be in jail right now. I promise you that." Runner up (about Bernanke), "If I was wrong every month for 8 years, you wouldn't have me on your show!".

The US debt discussion begins around the 5 minute mark, but the entire clip is worth watching.

Oh....Spam Lagi!!!?

Kalau dapat email yang macam ni,

"delete" kan terus. Jangan di click

di mana-mana pun kalau tak mahu kehilangan

wang di akaun bank anda!

Harus diingat, pihak Maybank tidak berhubung dengan pelanggannya melalui email.

Ohh.....Ada Sindiket !?

Salam buat semua pembaca blog Oh!Emas.

Sekadar nak berkongsi sikit mengenai email yang

masuk ke spam box saya. Cuma hari ini tergerak

untuk kongsikan benda ni walaupun email yang macam ni

kerapkali di delete saja oleh saya. Ada mat somalia ni

dok hantar email dok cerita pasai harta dia. Ni semua

nak pekena kita untuk jadi mangsa dia. Jadi, berhati-hatilah.

.....lagi satu email dari mamat ni, tapi email add dia dah lain

sekali lagi nak pesan, beringatlah sebelum terkena.

Analisa Teknikal Harga Emas, Isnin 06/06/2011

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: BULLISH BIAS ABOVE 1535
Pivot: 1535.00

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1535 with 1555 & 1570 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1535 will call for 1520 & 1509.

Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Petua Untuk Beli Emas

Petua Membeli Emas

Ramai yang berhasrat untuk memiliki emas fizikal. Baiklah, apakah petua untuk kita lihat dalam membuat pembelian emas ini?!

Mari sama-sama kita lihat.


1. Jenis emas

o Perkara yang paling penting ialah jenis emas yang bakal dimiliki.

o Seeloknya ialah emas fizikal yang boleh di pajak atau jual bila-bila masa
di waktu perlu, bukannya akaun emas, saham emas, sijil emas, atau
senangnya emas maya tidak elok. Malah ianya tidak jelas hukumnya disisi
agama kita islam.

o Emas yang dimiliki ialah emas pelaburan iaitu, sama ada ianya goldbar, gold
coin atau dinar kerana kesemua ini memang dicipta khas untuk pelaburan maka
susut nilainya adalah kecil.

o Manakala emas dalam bentuk barang kemas pula kurang elok kerana susut
nilainya adalah besar apabila kita hendak menolaknya di kedai-kedai emas.
Ini kerana barang kemas bukan dicipta untuk pelaburan tetapi ianya sebagai
perhiasan wanita.

2. Ketulenan Emas

o Ketulenan emas dinilai melalui Karat atau 'K'.

o Emas paling tulen ialah emas 24k, dan seterusnya 22.8k atau 23k, 22k, 20k,
18k

o Semakin kecil karatnya, semakin kurang tulen emas itu.

o Ia juga ada disebut dalam bentuk 3 angka sebagai mewakili peratusan emas
dalam sebatian

o Emas 999.9 ialah emas 24k, emas 995 ialah emas 23k, 916 emas 22k, 875 emas
20k dan emas 850 ialah emas 18k.

o Semakin tulen emas yang disimpan adalah semakin baik.

o Emas 24k, 23k dan 22k dikira emas yang paling baik untuk disimpan sebagai
pelaburan.

3. Harga jual

o Sebenarnya, harga emas adalah penting untuk dilihat dalam membeli emas,
namun ianya bukanlah perkara yang paling penting kerana harga emas ini akan
sentiasa naik.

o Walaupun begitu, adalah bijak untuk kita mendapatkan harga emas yang murah

o Untuk itu, kita kena tahu harga semasa pasaran dunia, harga semasa pasaran
tempatan yang ditetapkan oleh FGJAM dan harga-harga emas di banyak tempat
yang ditawarkan sebagai perbandingan

o Sebagai contoh, sekiranya harga FGJAM dan kedai-kedai emas di Malaysia
menjual emas 24k pada harga RM172/g, mengapa kita harus membeli emas 24k
yang dijual pada harga RM192/g

4. Spread

o Spread ialah beza harga jual dan beli oleh pihak yang menjual emas kepada
pelanggan.

o Secara mudahnya, peratusan spread boleh dikira dengan mecari beza harga
jual dan beli yang kemudian dibahagikan dengan harga jual tadi serta
didarab 100.

o Lagi kecil % spread yang kita dapat adalah lagi untung.

o Ini kerana, setelah peratus keuntungan ditolak dengan peratus spread
jual-beli, maka itulah untung bersih yang kita akan dapat sebelum ditolak
zakat sebanyak 2.5% setahun.

o Peratusan spread adalah sangat penting untuk dilihat dalam membeli emas
mengatasi aspek harga emas sebenarnya.

5. Mudah Dijual balik

o Mudah dijual balik maksudnya, sekiranya kita hendak menjualnya selain
memajaknya diwaktu terdesak, ianya mestilah mudah dan senang.

o Menjual emas kepada sesiapa pun memanglah mudah sebenarnya, tetapi untuk
mendapatkan keuntungan yang maksimum, seeloknya menjual emas kita tadi
kepada tempat atau orang yang kita belinya.

o Emas Poh Kong dijual balik ke Poh Kong, Wah Chan ke Wah Chan, Poh Win ke
Poh Win dan Public Gold kepada pihak Public Gold kembali samada dealer atau
syarikat itu sendiri.

6. Stok yang banyak

o Jika kita nak menyimpan emas, biasanya waktu harga murah ramai yang ingin
beli emas.

o Penjual yang hanya menjual sedikit amaun gram emas sahaja diwaktu harga
murah adalah tidak elok bagi kita pelabur.

o Di waktu harga emas mahal dan tinggi, banyak pula stoknya.

o Jadi ini tidak baik untuk strategi pelaburan kita dalam emas.

o Oleh itu, memastikan emas yang dibekalkan adalah sentiasa mencukupi dan
banyak adalah penting.

7. Jaminan belian balik

o Emas tulen seperti emas 24k atau emas yang masih lagi lembut seperti emas
23k dan emas 22k sangat senang terdedah kepada pelbagai risiko fizikal
seperti kemek, patah, terguris, calar dan bengkok terutamanya pada emas 24k.

o Jadi, satu jaminan belian balik oleh pihak penjual emas tadi dari kita
adalah sangat penting.

o Ini kerana, walaupun emas itu boleh rosak atau dirosakkan, namun, nilainya
tetap tidak berubah asalkan berat dan kualiti ketulenannya adalah sama.

Analisa Teknikal Harga Emas, Jumaat 03/06/2011

GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE.
Pivot: 1538.00

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1538 with 1520 & 1509 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1538 will call for a rebound towards 1550 & 1555.

Comment: The price broke down its bullish channel. The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Gold Falls as Euro’s Rebound Erodes Demand for Metal as Investment Haven

Gold futures fell the most in two weeks as the euro climbed, eroding demand for the precious metal as a haven asset. Silver also tumbled.

The euro rose as much as 1.3 percent against the dollar to a three-week high after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she is committed to the common currency. Last month, gold fell 1.3 percent after reaching a record $1,557.40 an ounce on May 2.
“With the euro stable, you’re losing the flight-to-quality bid in gold,” said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior strategist at Chicago broker Lind-Waldock.

Gold futures for August delivery fell $10.50, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $1,532.70 at 1:38 p.m. on the Comex in New York, the biggest drop since May 17. The metal still has gained 25 percent in the past year.

The dollar declined as much as 0.6 percent against a basket of major currencies as bearish reports on the economy spurred concern that the recovery is waning.
“A decrease in economic growth takes away the argument from the inflation camp to buy gold,” Klopfenstein said.

The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark interest rate at zero percent to 0.25 percent since December 2008 and pledged to buy $600 billion in Treasuries through the end of June to help revive the economy.

Copper dropped as much as 1.8 percent, and U.S. equities slumped for the second straight day.

“Traders are out of risk assets,” said Frank Lesh, a trader at FuturePath Trading LLC in Chicago. “Demand for gold and metals is going to suffer.”

Silver futures for July delivery declined $1.492, or 4 percent, to $36.202 an ounce on the Comex, marking the biggest slide since May 11. The price has fallen 27 percent from a 31- year high of $49.845 on April 25.

Palladium futures for September delivery dropped $8.70, or 1.1 percent, to $770.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Platinum futures for July delivery declined $6.10, or 0.3 percent, to $1,817.80 an ounce.

By Pham-Duy Nguyen - Jun 3, 2011 2:21 AM GMT+0800

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-02/gold-falls-as-euro-s-rebound-erodes-demand-for-metal-as-investment-haven.html

What differentiates investment in more explosive silver from gold?

Investors in silver have seen prices soar, crash back, and now perhaps begin to pick up again. Why does explosive silver behave so differently from far steadier gold?

The silver market is still reeling from its fall from $50 to $34 over a very short time. The move was driven by at least one investor selling around 1,000 tonnes of silver over a two week period. Silver had climbed quickly from around $25. The charts supported a rise to $29, but as silver went higher, it climbed out of technical range into new territory. All the time thereafter it was vulnerable to a selloff back to support around that level.

Many felt it could easily fall to $20 before recovering, but it bounced off $32 and has been consolidating above $34 since then. The selling then stopped and buying started, but the consolidation at this level indicates that the market has to get used to these prices for a while before they establish a ‘floor' that permits cautious buyers to re-enter the market again.

Investors must ask themselves...
Ø Should silver be considered as financial security, like gold?
Ø Will it ever reach that status of being a monetary metal, in the eyes of central banks and global investors?
Ø Some may feel that the biggest question mark hangs over its volatility in the future. Can the silver market be manipulated, as the large US banks have done in the recent past?
Ø Can the silver market be cornered, as the Hunt brothers from Texas once tried to do?

FINANCIAL SECURITY
The silver and gold investing world is divided in two...

In the developed world, investments are not looked at as financial security, but rather as sources of profits. Investors make their own financial security through the profits they make over the years. This implies that investments are held for eventual selling unless they continue to grow and make capital gains and income for the future. Investors must constantly monitor their investments to ensure they make profits. The reins remain firmly in the investor's hands.

In the emerging world, wealth is new to most and the investor is constantly reminded of the recent poverty and the uncertainty of retaining wealth. Bank deposits in China were the usual investment avenue. That was until food and energy inflation brought back uncertainty and poor performance and doubt in the safety of their savings.

Gold has always been considered an important place to hold ones wealth, as it protects against uncertainty and the attrition of wealth by inflation. New investors have watched the performance of gold over the last decade, through boom times and uncertain times. They have seen gold and silver persistently outperform other investments in a confidence-decaying world. With burgeoning middle classes for the next decade and more, investors in gold and silver are likely to expand and perpetuate the belief that gold and silver should be considered financial security and real money.

SILVER AS MONETARY METAL
For central banks global investors?
The presence of gold in the foreign nation's exchange reserves is proof enough that gold is a monetary metal. We see the number of central banks across the world buying more of it and no longer selling it. But there is no silver in the central bank vaults. It hasn't even been a valuable means of exchange in the dark past.
It most likely will not come back as a monetary metal or as part of central bank reserves until the entire present monetary system sits in disrepute. It is too much of an industrial, consumable metal to provide the features that a monetary metal should have. At a price beyond well above the current level, it could make a comeback, but this is unlikely. The status of ‘monetary metal' can only be given by central banks, and not investors.

If investors treat silver as money -a poor man's gold, as it were- then it rises to the status of real money in those investor's eyes. The central banks wouldn't be an issue. In the developed world silver is nowhere near that status, except in the hands of a select few. In the emerging world matters are different.
Emerging world investors are finding that gold is getting out of their price range.

They have no option but to turn to a cheaper alternative. In the past, silver has always been a metal that is real money and represents financial security. Its performance over the last few years is confirmation enough.
Asian Investors haven't been disappointed, considering the silver price once stood at $6/oz. A pull back from $50 to $34 was not totally unexpected. It went too high, too fast.

But the nature of investors in the emerging world (i.e. India) is such that when they see a ‘spike' in prices, they sell and hope for a good fall and the establishment of a new ‘floor' price. Then they buy back and continue to hold. It is rarely their intention to exit the precious metal markets. Proof of such an attitude can be found in recent Chinese import of silver.

April demand for silver bullion was 339.4 metric tonnes. This compares to 302.09 metric tonnes in April 2010 or an increase of over 12% from the same month last year. It compares with silver imports of just 132.5 and 127.3 metric tonnes in April 2009 and April 2008, respectively. The record demand for silver bullion seen in 2010 is continuing in 2011 and higher prices are not deterring Chinese buyers. China imported 3475.4 tonnes of silver bullion in 2010, a massive fourfold increase from 2009 when imports were just 876.8 tonnes.

China was a net exporter of silver bullion up until 2007. We expect the numbers to India to reflect the same trend.
Consolidating in the lower to mid $30, silver will re-attract emerging world buyers in greater volume.

MANIPULATION
In short, yes, it can. With silver at a low price relative to the volume of investment funds out there [such as in the top five U.S. banks] it does not take a very large amount to push prices up and down. Regulators themselves have pointed out that there has been manipulation of the silver price in the past. But regulations and the media have certainly chased a measure of that out of the U.S. market [but the world is a big place].

However, we have to qualify that statement, by saying that the number of silver investors out there with 1,000 tonnes of physical silver to sell are few and far between! Once they have sold, their silver has gone. They have to hope that the silver price will drop back and allow them to buy back in at lower prices or remain out of the market. Many have hoped that the silver price would fall back to $20 but the fall halted at $32 and in came emerging market and other buyers. This makes really effective price manipulation very hard. With the trend of silver up, anybody shorting the market, will usually get hurt. The best a manipulator can do today is to go with the price waves that we see in all markets, but avoid fighting the trend.

Over time, and with prices trending up, there will be a day when such manipulation will be very difficult to achieve on a continuous basis. But silver will continue to be very volatile and much more so than gold, for a long time still. Until we see considerably more liquidity in the silver physical market price swings could remain frightening. Once liquidity rises much more than seen now, a seller or buyer of a large amount can do so, while producing only small swings in the price. Then silver's price will become as stable as that of gold. But the pattern of silver price movements that has been established by silver, all the way up, has been to move up with gold and to fall with gold, albeit in a more exaggerated manner. This has been the case for some years now. There is no reason to think that this pattern will stop.

CORNERING THE MARKET - THE HUNT BROTHERS...
They succeeded in driving the price up to $50/oz. They were then pressured by the silver regulating bodies and forced into a position when they had to sell. As the only buyer at anywhere near those prices there was nobody else to buy the silver from them. As they began to sell, the price dropped back to the level it had been when they started.

Hence developed world investors need liquid markets so they can sell at higher prices without hurting the price too much. When they sell too much too quickly, the price falls (i.e. recent drop from $50 to $32).

Similar to the Hunt Brothers is another type of cornering: dominating supply without any intention of selling any at all. To be a perpetual seller of a huge stockpile would hold the price down, as long as you have stock. India, China and Russia were sellers of their huge silver stockpiles left over from the days when silver was used as a ‘means of exchange' (i.e. pocket change). This has held prices down since the Hunt brother days.

We saw a similar situation in gold when up until 2009 the central banks of Europe stopped gold sales. As sales were slowing down, the gold price rose from its low, manipulated price of $275 (Britain sold half of its reserves at that level) to around $1,200/oz. Central banks now either hold or buy gold, unlikely to sell again...

With no intention of selling, Gold-producing nations are buying up local production and reducing supply to the market -not for profit, but for the protection of national reserves. If this extended to all gold-producing nations then you would have a true cornering of the gold market. If the central banks of silver nations decided that silver should be a reserve asset, then they would have to take off newly produced silver for a very long time to make a significant contribution to their reserves.

For an individual or even a single institution, cornering would be nigh-on-impossible. It would be possible (although extremely unlikely) if the central banks of silver producing nations decided to act in concert and corner the silver market. With so many important industrial applications, such an attempt would produce global anger. Cornering the market in this day and age would not be successful.

Julian Phillips is a long time specialist analyst of the gold and silver markets and is the principal contributor to the Gold Forecaster - www.goldforecaster.com - and Silver Forecaster- www.silverforecaster.com - websites and newsletters

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=127857&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Comex Gold Upticks As Dollar Slides Following Weak U.S. Data

(Kitco News) - Gold futures ticked higher Wednesday as the U.S. dollar sagged after disappointing U.S. economic data, with technically oriented buying adding to the move.

At 11:03 a.m. EDT, gold for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was $8 an ounce higher at $1,544.80. The market earlier traded as low as $1,530.40.
“It’s (because of) the dollar. It’s sinking pretty sharply, especially against the Swiss franc,” said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance. “That gave it the real push.”

A report on U.S. private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing, which is conducted monthly just ahead of the government’s monthly employment report due out Friday, showed that private-sector non-farm jobs rose just 38,000 in May, well below the 175,000 increase expected by economists. Further, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its key manufacturing index fell to 53.5 in May from 60.4 in April, below the forecast of 57.1.
“This is a rash of bad data,” said Zachary Oxman, managing director of TrendMax Futures.
Buy stops were triggered as gold ticked above $1,540 and just above, Nabavi and Oxman said.

“We had pretty decent resistance around ($1,5)41 to ($1,5)41.50. We broke through that and ascended up three bucks very rapidly,” Oxman said. “There (were) a lot of worries about this data this morning.”

July silver remains softer, trading down 13.6 cents for the day to $38.17 an ounce. However, the metal is above its $37.525 low, and Nabavi suggested this and other commodities should benefit if the dollar remains on the defensive.

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
Source: http://www.kitco.com/reports/June%2001%202011%20gold%20update.html

Analisa Teknikal Harga Emas, Rabu 01/06/2011

GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS.
Pivot: 1541.00

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1541 with targets @ 1518 & 1509.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1541 will call for a rebound towards 1550 & 1565.

Comment: The price has broken below the lower boundary channel.

金价近期易涨难跌 或冲击1550美元

上周五，美元停止了连续的反弹势头再次走软。金价因此上涨至最高1538.44美元，最终收盘报在1536.40美元。白银价格窄幅波动于37.20美元至38.21美元之间。
　　在昨日的亚洲交易时段，金价再次冲高到1538美元，之后在1535美元附近窄幅震荡。伦敦与纽约的商品和金融市场昨日因节假日休市，因此市场交投淡静，预计价格不会有太大波动。
　　目前国际金价运行平稳，市场对希腊债务危机的忧虑有望继续支撑金价走高，但同时美国的宽松货币政策将在6月结束，之后的政策走向多数取决于美国经济的复苏状况，因此投资者可重点关注美国公布的经济数据。近期金价有望上冲1550美元，白银受联动效应或能站稳37美元。
　　截至5月27日，白银ETFSLV持仓连续三日持平，为9941.33吨。黄金ETFSPDR Gold Trust持仓较5月26日减少0.91吨，为1213.16926吨。中行上海
Source: http://gold.hexun.com/2011-05-31/130109879.html

Terjemahan Terus:

Sulit atau mudah untuk sampai harga emas, atau kesan baru-baru ini $ 1,550

Pada hari Jumaat, rally dolar untuk menghentikan momentum terus melemahnya lagi. Oleh kerana itu, harga emas naik menjadi maksimum sebanyak $ 1,538.44, $ 1,536.40 pada penutupan di akhir. Harga Silver berfluktuasi dalam langkah yang sempit diantara 37,20-38,21 dolar AS .
Dalam jam terakhir perdagangan di Asia, harga emas melonjak sampai ke $ 1538, selepas kisaran sempit sekitar $ 1535. Komoditi London dan New York dan pasaran kewangan ditutup terakhir kerana hari cuti, sehingga pasaran sepi, harga diharapkan untuk tidak memiliki volatilitas terlalu banyak.

Harga antarabangsa saat ini emas berjalan lancar, pasaran bimbang krisis hutang di Greece dijangka akan terus menyokong harga emas, namun dasar kewangan AS yang longgar akan berakhir pada bulan Jun, selepas sebahagian besar dasar-dasar terhadap pemulihan ekonomi AS bergantung pada situasi, sehingga pelabur boleh menumpukan pada data ekonomi AS. Baru-baru ini diharapkan pada perak $ 1,550 merah, emas, atau bisa berdiri oleh kesan hubungan antara 37 dolar.

Pada Mei 27, hari berturut-turut perak ketiga ETFSLV kedudukan datar di 9.941,33 ton. Gold ETFSPDR Gold Trust 26 Mei kedudukan kurang dari 0,91 ton, sebagai 1213,16926 tan. Bank of Shanghai