Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers in Montreal, said the gold market is being driven mainly by psychological factors.
"It's like the waiting room at a psychiatrist's office," he said. "We've seen fear, despair, greed, denial -- mostly denial," he said.
Nadler said prices could fall further if the metal drops below $1,650 an ounce. But he wouldn't rule out a rebound of about $65 an ounce in the near term.
He said some investors are still expecting the Fed to signal additional stimulus measures at a meeting in Wyoming this weekend. Ben Bernanke, the central bank chairman, is scheduled to deliver the keynote speech Friday.
In any event, he said the recent volatility in the gold market is worrying for an asset that is supposed to be a hedge against volatility.
The drop on Wednesday was the biggest one-day price decline since 1980, he said.
"The psychological damage to the small investor is already shaping up in full force," he said. "They might start leaning toward the side that says we had a bubble, and bubbles don't deflate slowly once they're pricked."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-steadies-after-free-cnnm-1134773125.html
Friday 26 August 2011
After Correction, Gold and Silver Set for Big Rally
After Correction, Gold and Silver Set for Big Rally – Puru Saxena
Interview Highlights:
Kitco News held an exclusive interview with Puru Saxena of Hong-Kong based Puru Saxena Wealth Management; here are some of the highlights. Click to watch the full interview below:
QE3 Would Ignite Silver
Silver has been in a massive uptrend for last year says Saxena and it has completed its consolidation phase, says Saxena. “The technicals for silver look super here and if and when Bernanke does QE3 – silver is going to ignite,” he says. Saxena says at the moment roughly 15% of assets he manages are allocated in physical silver.
“We warned about a big silver correction in April when everybody thought silver was going to 400-500,” says Saxena. He started buying silver again at the $33-$34 mark and recently added some more to his portfolio last week, he says.
More Corrections for Gold?
Over the last 10 years, gold’s advance has been “orderly,” says Saxena. “We didn’t really have any massive spikes; however, about two to three months ago, I felt gold was going to do its thing this year,” Saxena says.
Saxena says he could see gold going parabolic over the next six to nine months. “I wouldn’t try to be too clever by timing gold here or trading gold I think the correct thing to do in the latter stage of a bull market is to take a sizeable position and simply ride it out for the duration of the bull market,” he adds.
Friday’s Jackson Hole Meeting
Saxena says he is not so sure whether Friday’s Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., will see a third round of quantitative easing unleashed, but he says an asset buying program is in the cards. “When I look at bank stocks in America, they are down significantly from the highs and that leaves me to believe that Mr. Bernanke will do something to help his brothers in the banking industry,” he says.
It was at last year’s Jackson Hole meeting that Bernanke hinted that another bond-buying round would occur, but the program wasn’t officially announced until November.
The banks are in need of capital and the easiest way to get it is through the Fed Reserve, explains Saxena. “They may not call it QE3 but maybe Operation Twist or Black Storm,” Saxena says, but at some point, he says he believes there will be assistance from the Federal Reserve.
Indian Gold Imports
Gold imports by India, the world’s biggest consumer, may reach a record 1,000 tons this year as investors seek a haven against inflation and volatility in stock markets. Saxena says the bull market in gold is not just about Indian jewelry demand or Indian investment demand; it is about global investment demand.
People all over the world are shunning paper currencies, Saxena says. “Even central banks are beginning to see the light of day -- Korea, Mexico, Thailand have been piling into gold,” he says. Saxena adds that the biggest player to emerge might be China’s central bank. “It only owns about 2% of reserves in gold…at some point the Chinese are going to buy gold in large quantities and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chinese have secretly been buying into gold,” he says.
By Daniela Cambone of Kitco News dcambone@kitco.com
Interview Highlights:
Kitco News held an exclusive interview with Puru Saxena of Hong-Kong based Puru Saxena Wealth Management; here are some of the highlights. Click to watch the full interview below:
QE3 Would Ignite Silver
Silver has been in a massive uptrend for last year says Saxena and it has completed its consolidation phase, says Saxena. “The technicals for silver look super here and if and when Bernanke does QE3 – silver is going to ignite,” he says. Saxena says at the moment roughly 15% of assets he manages are allocated in physical silver.
“We warned about a big silver correction in April when everybody thought silver was going to 400-500,” says Saxena. He started buying silver again at the $33-$34 mark and recently added some more to his portfolio last week, he says.
More Corrections for Gold?
Over the last 10 years, gold’s advance has been “orderly,” says Saxena. “We didn’t really have any massive spikes; however, about two to three months ago, I felt gold was going to do its thing this year,” Saxena says.
Saxena says he could see gold going parabolic over the next six to nine months. “I wouldn’t try to be too clever by timing gold here or trading gold I think the correct thing to do in the latter stage of a bull market is to take a sizeable position and simply ride it out for the duration of the bull market,” he adds.
Friday’s Jackson Hole Meeting
Saxena says he is not so sure whether Friday’s Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., will see a third round of quantitative easing unleashed, but he says an asset buying program is in the cards. “When I look at bank stocks in America, they are down significantly from the highs and that leaves me to believe that Mr. Bernanke will do something to help his brothers in the banking industry,” he says.
It was at last year’s Jackson Hole meeting that Bernanke hinted that another bond-buying round would occur, but the program wasn’t officially announced until November.
The banks are in need of capital and the easiest way to get it is through the Fed Reserve, explains Saxena. “They may not call it QE3 but maybe Operation Twist or Black Storm,” Saxena says, but at some point, he says he believes there will be assistance from the Federal Reserve.
Indian Gold Imports
Gold imports by India, the world’s biggest consumer, may reach a record 1,000 tons this year as investors seek a haven against inflation and volatility in stock markets. Saxena says the bull market in gold is not just about Indian jewelry demand or Indian investment demand; it is about global investment demand.
People all over the world are shunning paper currencies, Saxena says. “Even central banks are beginning to see the light of day -- Korea, Mexico, Thailand have been piling into gold,” he says. Saxena adds that the biggest player to emerge might be China’s central bank. “It only owns about 2% of reserves in gold…at some point the Chinese are going to buy gold in large quantities and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chinese have secretly been buying into gold,” he says.
By Daniela Cambone of Kitco News dcambone@kitco.com
Thursday 25 August 2011
Kemudahan Jual Balik - Sell Back - Public Gold Malaysia
Perkembangan terkini dari Public Gold Malaysia.
Sekarang kemudahan online untuk lock harga
jual balik emas dan perak telah disediakan secara
ONLINE. Saya sangat menyambut baik kemudahan ini.
Tahniah PUBLIC GOLD.
(Terima Kasih kepada En. James, dari PG HQ Penang kerana
telah merealisasikan cadangan ini yang telah dikemukakan
kepada beliau beberapa bulan yang lepas)
Sekarang kemudahan online untuk lock harga
jual balik emas dan perak telah disediakan secara
ONLINE. Saya sangat menyambut baik kemudahan ini.
Tahniah PUBLIC GOLD.
(Terima Kasih kepada En. James, dari PG HQ Penang kerana
telah merealisasikan cadangan ini yang telah dikemukakan
kepada beliau beberapa bulan yang lepas)
Wednesday 24 August 2011
Gold Prices Sink Further After Earthquake
NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Gold prices retreated from record highs Tuesday as investors took profits once the yellow metal blew past $1,900 an ounce.
Strong manufacturing data out of China and Germany as well as a surprise earthquake in Virginia accelerated declines.
Gold for December delivery closed down $30.60 at $1,861.30 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, although prices were down an additional $50 in after-hours trading. The gold price traded as high as $1,917.90 and as low as $1,851.90 during the session, while the spot gold price tanked more than $60, according to Kitco's gold index.
Silver prices settled down $1.03 at $42.29 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.34% at $73.89 while the euro was flat vs. the dollar.
HSBC sparked the selloff in gold Tuesday after it said its gauge of manufacturing activity in China rose to 49.8 from 49.3 in July. Although that number is under the 50 point growth level, some experts say that it signals a soft landing in China -- that recent rate hikes have not stymied growth altogether.
Manufacturing activity in the Eurozone and in particular Germany were also better than expected at 49.7 and 52, respectively. Investors had been dreading a global slowdown after the Germany's economy showed almost no growth in the second quarter.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange also raised margin requirements on gold futures contracts, the second time this year, by 1%, making investors pay more up front to buy gold. Traders worried about the CME following suit could be rotating out of some of their gold contracts.
Gold prices also blew past $1,900 in overnight trading, triggering a wave of profit taking. "Should we have changes in asset allocations with a show of stability in stock markets we could see a pullback below $1,825," says George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Capital Markets, especially if sell stops are triggered below $1,850, meaning that traders are forced to sell.
Many experts think, however, that any dips will be met with strong buying and help curb a deeper correction. "The inability of asset managers to find other well performing areas is keeping gold in portfolios," says Gero.
"Demand for gold appears to be broad based," says James Moore, research analyst at FastMarket, "with the US Mint reporting MTD Eagle coin sales in excess of 90,000 in contrast to SPDR Gold Trust(GLD_), which declined by 6.3 tons yesterday and as a result we expect any correction to be supported by strong dip-buying interest."
Phil Streible, senior market strategist at MFGlobal, doesn't think that gold prices will fall back to the $1,680 level, which is the technical level many analysts point to as a key support, but that they will fall. "You have to look at some of these previous peaks," says Streible, like $1,725 and $1,800 an ounce levels, "use those as support levels and then start nibbling at the market there."
A slew of positive news or, on the flip side, any need for investors to liquidate assets for cash, could be potential headwinds for higher gold prices. If investors feel better about the economy, they might not seek gold as protection. But if investors are faced with higher margin requirements or another deep selloff in the stock market, gold buyers could dump the metal to raise cash.
Darrell Cronk, senior vice president, regional chief investment officer at Wells Fargo(WFC_), was instrumental in writing the investment bank's recent note that said "we can confidently state that interest in gold investing has reached the level of a speculative bubble. Prudent investors should be very wary of having substantial investment exposure to this precious metal in their portfolios." Cronk spoke recently to TheStreet to defend that position in the face of a high gold price.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11228023/1/gold-prices-tank-after-cresting-1900.html
Strong manufacturing data out of China and Germany as well as a surprise earthquake in Virginia accelerated declines.
Gold for December delivery closed down $30.60 at $1,861.30 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, although prices were down an additional $50 in after-hours trading. The gold price traded as high as $1,917.90 and as low as $1,851.90 during the session, while the spot gold price tanked more than $60, according to Kitco's gold index.
Silver prices settled down $1.03 at $42.29 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.34% at $73.89 while the euro was flat vs. the dollar.
HSBC sparked the selloff in gold Tuesday after it said its gauge of manufacturing activity in China rose to 49.8 from 49.3 in July. Although that number is under the 50 point growth level, some experts say that it signals a soft landing in China -- that recent rate hikes have not stymied growth altogether.
Manufacturing activity in the Eurozone and in particular Germany were also better than expected at 49.7 and 52, respectively. Investors had been dreading a global slowdown after the Germany's economy showed almost no growth in the second quarter.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange also raised margin requirements on gold futures contracts, the second time this year, by 1%, making investors pay more up front to buy gold. Traders worried about the CME following suit could be rotating out of some of their gold contracts.
Gold prices also blew past $1,900 in overnight trading, triggering a wave of profit taking. "Should we have changes in asset allocations with a show of stability in stock markets we could see a pullback below $1,825," says George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Capital Markets, especially if sell stops are triggered below $1,850, meaning that traders are forced to sell.
Many experts think, however, that any dips will be met with strong buying and help curb a deeper correction. "The inability of asset managers to find other well performing areas is keeping gold in portfolios," says Gero.
"Demand for gold appears to be broad based," says James Moore, research analyst at FastMarket, "with the US Mint reporting MTD Eagle coin sales in excess of 90,000 in contrast to SPDR Gold Trust(GLD_), which declined by 6.3 tons yesterday and as a result we expect any correction to be supported by strong dip-buying interest."
Phil Streible, senior market strategist at MFGlobal, doesn't think that gold prices will fall back to the $1,680 level, which is the technical level many analysts point to as a key support, but that they will fall. "You have to look at some of these previous peaks," says Streible, like $1,725 and $1,800 an ounce levels, "use those as support levels and then start nibbling at the market there."
A slew of positive news or, on the flip side, any need for investors to liquidate assets for cash, could be potential headwinds for higher gold prices. If investors feel better about the economy, they might not seek gold as protection. But if investors are faced with higher margin requirements or another deep selloff in the stock market, gold buyers could dump the metal to raise cash.
Darrell Cronk, senior vice president, regional chief investment officer at Wells Fargo(WFC_), was instrumental in writing the investment bank's recent note that said "we can confidently state that interest in gold investing has reached the level of a speculative bubble. Prudent investors should be very wary of having substantial investment exposure to this precious metal in their portfolios." Cronk spoke recently to TheStreet to defend that position in the face of a high gold price.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11228023/1/gold-prices-tank-after-cresting-1900.html
Tuesday 23 August 2011
Kitco - Commentaries - Richard Baker
Kitco - Commentaries - Richard Baker
The Value Adjusted Gold Price© (VAGP©) offers a simple technique to influence buy/sell decisions for gold traders and investors. The approach can be used for any currency denomination and is validated by comparing it with a recent chronology of buy/sell recommendations from a renowned commodity trader.
Gold is presently a very tall tree but it will not grow to the heavens - precious metals are known for periods of consolidation and sometimes violent correction. Even most ardent believers in the 30-year secular bull market for the yellow metal have a disciplined approach to creating positions. The following is one such technique.
Kitco - Commentaries - Ross Norman
Kitco - Commentaries - Ross Norman
At what point does gold go from being simply overbought and actually into a bubble phase ? It's a question well worth pondering as we seem to be on the cusp of both.
Technically gold is in overbought territory by any number of technical measures on the charts - be they bollinger bands, RSI (Relative Strength Indicator), MACD Indicator, Fibonacci extensions or Elliot Waves. Gold's failure to adhere to what chartists would tell us is reasonable behaviour - that is continue to rally when by rights a period of consolidation or profit-taking would be expected suggests that gold is either simply not in technical "mode" and that other external factors are driving us higher or that we are in a panic phase which inevitably leads to a blow-off at the top.
There is not a particular price point at which we could say that we are in a bubble - it is the manner - or speed - of getting there that defines it. This bull run has been 11 years in the making, it has been founded upon solid supply/demand fundamentals - it has been accelerated by innovation on the demand side and some extreme macroeconomic factors which to our minds justifies the current price; as such, the gold price is inherently strong and has resilience.
In most of the last 11 years we have seen gains in gold prices of between 18% and 22% - this year we have seen 32% and we are yet to enjoy the fourth quarter which is traditionally the strongest quarter for seasonal factors.
It is tough determining the level or price which represents 'fair value' and when one has moved well beyond it. That said, the parabolic nature of the gold price chart in the last few weeks suggests to us that we are ahead of ourselves and that a pull back or correction would be a healthy one. The Fibonacci Extensions suggest that $1915, $2111 and $2232 are top price projections - take your pick.
In short, long gold has been a wondrously profitable position to hold but a degree of caution is now in order. We are preparing levels at which to sell our gold positions - until it returns to a more sensible level... and then get back in. Let's not be too greedy.
Jackson Hole this Friday MIGHT just provide that turning point.
Ross Norman
Sharps Pixley, London-Based Bullion Brokers
Monday 15 August 2011
Selling Your Gold
Selling your gold
With the price of gold above $1,700 an ounce, some cash-strapped Americans are deciding to sell some of their gold jewelry. The Better Business Bureau says consumers should take precautions to make sure they get a fair price. It recommends that no matter where they're selling, consumers take their jewelry to several appraisers before selling to a gold buyer. The BBB also said consumers should ask buyers how much they’ll be paid per ounce and get several quotes. The group cautioned consumers not to let jewelry of different karats be weighed together: Some buyers weigh all gold together and pay only the price for the lowest-quality gold.
Tuesday 9 August 2011
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