Harga emas naik disebabkan faktor teknikal, permintaan
terhadap emas fizikal tidak menunjukkan pertambahan yang signifikan. Keupayaan untuk harga turun lagi
tetap ada.
Gold Soars On Technical Factors, Slightly Higher Hopes For
More Fed Accommodation
(Kitco News) -The sharp surge in gold futures Thursday is
mostly a technical-chart bounce, with some help from Federal Open Market
Committee minutes late Wednesday which were construed to leave the door
slightly ajar for possible further accommodative monetary policy, analysts said
Thursday.Expectations are mixed on whether the recovery in gold has legs.
As of 11:08 a.m. EDT, gold for June delivery was $37.10, or 2.5%, higher at $1,573.80 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Wednesday, the contract fell to a low of $1,526.70 that was its weakest level since July, although spot gold’s low of $1,527.25 held above nearby support at the December bottom of $1,522.95.
Analysts cited a combination of bargain hunting around the recent lows plus buying to cover short positions in which short-term speculators previously sold gold.
“It’s been so overdone,” said Mike Daly, gold and silver specialist with PFGBEST, of the recent weakness. “Out of 12 trading days in May, we’ve had 10 down days and two up days.”
Several analysts said gold’s recent descent stopped in a support zone that they collectively listed from roughly $1,520 to $1,530.
“It tried the support area around $1,530 two or three times yesterday, and each time it held quite nicely,” said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading with MKS Finance. “So today we saw a bit of a buy-back.”
Spencer Patton, chief investment officer with Steel Vine Investments, pointed out that gold is breaking its recent correlation with the euro. The metal has soared even though the euro, battered lately by worries about debt-plagued Greece, remains on the defensive.
“I think what’s playing most into it is just how oversold the market is…It essentially fell in a straight line,” Patton said. “Gold is oversold by every metric. So you’re seeing a little bit of relief from that.”
Or, as FuturePath Trading analyst Frank Lesh put it, “sometimes you get to those points where everybody who wants to sell (already) has….A bounce of this type was to be expected. And the market held at an important level.”
Some spark came from the release of minutes from the most recent meeting of the FOMC, Daly said. Gold has been hurt since late February on ideas that the Fed may not undertake any more loosening of monetary policy since some economic recovery is occurring, albeit slow. However, the minutes said “several” members indicated further policy accommodation “could be necessary” if the economy falters.
“That basically stopped the bleeding” in gold, Daly said.
Further, this might have unleashed some “pent-up demand” from market participants who have been patiently waiting to buy gold, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodity broker with RJO Futures. “It shot up fairly quickly,” he said. Buy stops, or pre-placed orders activated when certain chart points are hit, added to the market’s strength.
The weaker showing by the stock market in recent days might also be prompting some investors to dip their toes back in the gold market, Nabavi said. He also cited indications of at least some pick-up in physical gold from India, which he characterized as “extremely quiet” in recent weeks.
Views Mixed On Whether Gold Has Formed A Bottom
While gold has held around an important chart-support area, Lesh said “it is a little early to declare victory just yet.”
In an overnight research note before gold hit its session highs, UBS suggested gold may not have hit its low yet since physical demand had not picked up significantly during the recent pullback.
Pavilonis said he envisions more gold strength at least in the near term. But eventually, he suggested, a gold rally may stall as the dollar keeps strengthening, particularly if Greek citizens keep dumping their euros to move to other currencies.
Others say gold just might have put in its bottom.
“I think we may have seen the bottom of the range for the time being in gold,” Nabavi said. He later added: “The low we saw yesterday was close to the low we saw in December before the market rallied back up again. It looks like between $1,525 and $1,500 is very good support.”
Patton pointed out that the close in the June futures Wednesday of $1,536.60 was lower than the weakest close back in December--$1,545.50 on Dec. 29. The June contract Wednesday also hit its weakest intra-day low since July.
“The last time we broke below the most recent low, that has marked a bottom,” Patton said. “So there is the possibility that we are seeing a low put in gold here, at least a short-term one, and it could be more than that.”
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
