Updated: LBMA Survey: Analysts Look For Gold To Average $1,766/Oz In 2012

(Update includes chart of analysts and their gold-silver predictions for 2012)
06 January, 11:51 a.m.
By Allen Sykora
Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/

(Kitco News) - Analysts participating in the London Bullion Market Association’s annual price survey collectively look for gold to average $1,766 an ounce in 2012, the organization said Friday.

The average forecasts for the other precious metals included silver, $33.98; platinum, $1,624; and palladium, $735.52. Twenty-six analysts took part in the survey, offering their estimates for the high, low and average price in 2012.

The LBMA said the average gold forecast of $1,766 would be an increase of 10.2% compared to the price in the first week of January 2012. “Analysts are even more bullish about the prospects of the other precious metals, predicting a 17.3% increase in the price of silver and 15% and 12.3% rise in the prices of platinum and palladium, respectively,” the LBMA said.

However, the LBMA said, the survey overall showed less bullishness for the precious complex when comparing the average forecasts for 2012 with the actual average prices in 2011.
In the case of gold, the 2012 average forecast represents a 12.3% rise from the average of $1,572 last year. But in silver, the 2012 average forecast of $33.98 would mean a 3.2% decline from the actual average of $35.11 last year.

The 2012 average forecast of $735.52 in palladium is up 0.3% from the actual average of $733.63 last year. However, the forecast average of $1,624 for platinum was 5.6% below the average price of $1,720 for 2011.

For gold, the average high forecast for 2012 was $2,055, while the average forecast low was $1,443. In silver, the average forecast high for 2012 was $44.49, while the average low was $24.06.

Platinum's average high forecast for 2012 was $1,875, while the average forecast low was $1,313. For palladium, the average high forecast for 2012 was $879.38, while the average forecast low was $549.17.

Looking back on the 2011 survey, the LBMA said, analysts as a whole correctly forecast that gold and silver would trade higher. However, the actual average prices last year were $115 and $5 higher per ounce, respectively, than the average forecast in the LBMA survey.

Analysts had predicted strength in both platinum and palladium in 2011, but instead, both metals fell compared to the average prices in the first week of 2011. Actual platinum prices were 5.4% lower than forecast and palladium was 11% lower than forecast.

	Gold
	Name	Company	City	High	Low	Average
1	Adams, William	Fastmarkets	Salisbury	2,230	1,500	1,785
2	Brebner, Daniel	Deutsche Bank	London	2,100	1,545	1,825
3	Cooper, Suki	Barclays Capital	New York	2,200	1,400	1,875
4	Dincer, Bayram	LGT Capital Management Ltd	Pfäffikon	1,950	1,450	1,770
5	Fertig, Peter	QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd	Hainburg	2,150	1,390	1,730
6	Firman, Carl	VM Group	London	2,012	1,410	1,689
7	Hochreiter, René	Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd	Johannesburg	2,000	1,450	1,650
8	Jansen, Michael	JPMorgan Securities	London	2,150	1,450	1,869
9	Jollie, David	Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Inc	London	2,075	1,480	1,770
10	Kendall, Tom	Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd	London	1,960	1,475	1,755
11	Klapwijk, Philip	Thomson Reuters GFMS	London	2,005	1,530	1,760
12	Murenbeeld, Martin	Dundee Economics	Victoria	2,125	1,450	1,835
13	Nagao, Eddie	Sumitomo Corporation	Tokyo	1,800	1,300	1,525
14	Norman, Ross	Sharps Pixley Ltd	London	2,100	1,590	1,765
15	Panizzutti, Frederic	MKS Finance S.A.	Geneva	2,120	1,550	1,808
16	Proettel, Thorsten	LBBW	Stuttgart	1,950	1,220	1,640
17	Rhodes, Jeffrey	INTL Commodities	Dubai	1,975	1,465	1,727
18	Savant, Rohit	CPM Group	New York	1,800	1,200	1,612
19	Smith, Dan	Standard Chartered Bank	London	2,075	1,525	1,875
20	Steel, James	HSBC	New York	2,050	1,450	1,850
21	Tremblay, Anne-Laure	BNP Paribas	London	2,100	1,500	1,775
22	Tully, Edel	UBS	London	2,500	1,400	2,050
23	Turner, Matthew	Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) Plc	London	2,100	1,425	1,782
24	Vaidya, Bhargava	BN Vaidya & Associates	Mumbai	1,900	1,440	1,600
25	Widmer, Michael	BAML	London	2,000	1,500	1,850
26	Wrzesniok-Rossbach, Wolfgang	Degussa Goldhandel GmbH	Frankfurt	2,010	1,425	1,750
	AVERAGES:			$2,055	$1,443	$1,766

	Silver
	Name	Company	City	High	Low	Average
1	Adams, William	Fastmarkets	Salisbury	53.00	24.00	32.15
2	Brebner, Daniel	Deutsche Bank	London	45.00	26.00	37.00
3	Cooper, Suki	Barclays Capital	New York	45.00	22.00	32.50
4	Dincer, Bayram	LGT Capital Management Ltd	Pfäffikon	50.00	25.00	42.00
5	Fertig, Peter	QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd	Hainburg	45.00	25.00	33.90
6	Firman, Carl	VM Group	London	42.50	24.10	31.40
7	Hochreiter, René	Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd	Johannesburg	48.00	28.00	38.00
8	Jansen, Michael	JPMorgan Securities	London	36.00	26.00	34.00
9	Jollie, David	Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Inc	London	44.60	19.20	30.95
10	Kendall, Tom	Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd	London	42.60	24.20	32.80
11	Klapwijk, Philip	Thomson Reuters GFMS	London	45.05	26.85	34.20
12	Nagao, Eddie	Sumitomo Corporation	Tokyo	33.00	23.50	28.00
13	Norman, Ross	Sharps Pixley Ltd	London	50.00	20.00	37.35
14	Panizzutti, Frederic	MKS Finance S.A.	Geneva	50.00	27.00	36.00
15	Proettel, Thorsten	LBBW	Stuttgart	37.00	22.00	31.00
16	Rhodes, Jeffrey	INTL Commodities	Dubai	50.25	22.25	36.25
17	Savant, Rohit	CPM Group	New York	35.00	20.00	27.00
18	Smith, Dan	Standard Chartered Bank	London	48.00	26.00	39.20
19	Steel, James	HSBC	New York	38.00	27.00	34.00
20	Tremblay, Anne-Laure	BNP Paribas	London	47.00	24.00	35.75
21	Tully, Edel	UBS	London	50.00	24.00	35.00
22	Turner, Matthew	Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) Plc	London	45.10	24.15	32.95
23	Vaidya, Bhargava	BN Vaidya & Associates	Mumbai	48.10	21.25	29.20
24	Widmer, Michael	BAML	London	40.00	25.00	34.00
25	Wrzesniok-Rossbach, Wolfgang	Degussa Goldhandel GmbH	Frankfurt	44.00	25.00	35.00
	AVERAGES:			$44.49	$24.06	$33.98

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120106ASKN_lbma.html